Climate and Environment Risk Assessment Center

CERAC evaluates climate and environment risks for Belgium and advises policymakers on strategies for increased resilience and adaptation.


Exciting news ahead!

We are getting ready to present the CERAC to the public. The new center aims to inform and inspire resilience strategies across Belgium and Europe. This event will focus on the importance and elaboration of climate and environment risk assessments, highlighting the significant role of the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) report in guiding our collective journey towards greater resilience and safety.

We'll be sharing the invaluable insights and outputs from the event afterwards, ensuring that you stay informed and empowered to contribute to the resilience community. Stay tuned for updates about our transformative journey!

Latest news and events

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Impact on society

+ 2.1°C

The average annual temperature in Belgium is around 2.1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period.


Belgium’s ranking in the list of most water-stressed countries in the world (World Resources Institute). Even a short-term drought puts Belgium at risk of running out of water.

Who we are

From tragedy to action

July 2021. Belgium suffered the most devastating floods of its modern history. 39 people dead, more than 100,000 citizens affected. Estimated total cost: close to €2.57 billion.

As the damage became clear so did the urgency for more proactive measures to better understand, anticipate, and adapt to climate change consequences.

20 October 2021. In response to this disaster and in light of the multiplication of climate and environment hazards, the Council of Ministers decided to create a new independent federal center. This center is dedicated to the analysis of climate and environment risks in the middle and long term, with a focus on Belgium’s national security and resilience.

The idea for CERAC was born.

This focus on security and resilience was further reinforced in December 2021 with the publication of Belgium’s first National Security Strategy. The release identified the preservation of our natural environment as one of Belgium’s vital interests, especially in relation to climate change and biodiversity loss.

Safeguarding Belgium’s Future

CERAC aims at creating a future where Belgian citizens, territory and society are safer and more resilient to climate and environment risks, as well as the impacts of the transition.

1. Evaluate climate and environment risks

2. Provide information and recommendations

3. Raise awareness on climate and environment risks

What we do

Planetary boundaries: global guardrails for humanity

To operationalize the risks, CERAC makes use of the planetary boundaries framework, as originally defined by Johan Rockström et al. in 2009 and updated in different scientific publications.

This framework consists of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come, a so-called ‘safe operating space for humanity’.

Crossing these boundaries increases the risk of generating large-scale and irreversible environmental changes threatening humanity.

Read more about the planetary boundaries framework.

In CERAC's first project, we will downscale the global planetary boundaries framework to the Belgian context. It will define what a ‘safe and just operating space within the planetary boundaries’ concretely means for Belgium, what our environmental footprint is in light of these boundaries, and which concrete hazards are related to transgressing them.

The report will be published on CERAC's website by May 2024.

National Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss Risk Assessment

CERAC is preparing Belgium's first assessment of climate and biodiversity risks, addressing the National Security Strategy's concerns on threats to the nation's well-being, economy, and nature. This will inform policymakers to effectively manage and mitigate these risks.

The assessment will be guided by the following questions:

  • What are the main risks for Belgium in the mid to long term?
  • Which risks or (sub)sectors are priorities for future adaptation actions?
  • Which (sub)sectors/risks require further research?

The framework will be based on existing studies and guidelines, including the ISO 14091 ‘Adaptation to climate change - Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment’, the European Climate Risk Assessment and national climate risk assessments from other EU countries.

The final report will be available in 2025, but the methodological framework and some intermediary results will be communicated via this website in the second half of 2024.

How we work

Our work programme, risk assessments and recommendations are established independently. CERAC is administratively embedded in the Federal Public Service Health. We formulate recommendations for federal policy makers and provide advice to the National Security Council.

CERAC can rely on a strong cross-sectoral steering committee which includes representatives from 11 key (inter)federal institutions:

CERAC will also be supported by a multidisciplinary scientific advisory board composed of renowned academic experts from different research fields, including climate, environment, energy, health, economics, agriculture, security, transport, and social sciences.

Latest news and events

Stay informed with the latest news and events.

The first European Climate Risk assessment! What is in it for Belgium?

The main findings of the recently published European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and today’s European Commission’s Communication urge for active climate risk management that will enhance economic and societal resilience and reduce avoidable costs of recovery and damage repair.

April 11, 2024

High-Level Event on Regenerative Development

This event invites participants to rethink their relationship with the world around them by presenting and discussing regenerative development. This holistic approach aims to restore nature and rekindle its boundless possibilities.

22 april 2024

Unlocking resilience in Belgium and Europe through climate and environment risk assessments

The event will draw on the publication of the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) report, emphasizing its role in guiding EU Member-states and Belgium towards enhanced resilience and safety.

May 23, 2024

Third Forum of the Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change

The Forum is an opportunity to exchange views on climate adaptation in Europe and the successes of the Mission. The event will also showcase initiatives on adaptation and address the challenges experienced by regions and communities in becoming climate resilient.