Belgian climate hazards are assessed and studied as part of the CORDEX project. The update of the climate projections for Belgium are expected by 2026. Currently, the most updated information related to climate hazards in Belgium are available on Adapt2Climate.be. A specific article is also available : The CORDEX.be initiative as a foundation for climate services in Belgium. The general climate trends for Belgium over the next 100 years can be summarized as follow :
- Temperature increase will vary between +2.6 and +3.5°C compared to today.
- Increased seasonality of precipitation (fall in the average summer precipitation and increase of average winter precipitation)
- More frequent and/or intense heavy rains in winter and thunderstorms in summer are expected.
- Heat waves will be much more frequent and intense. Under unchanged policy (RCP scenario 8.5), they will increase on average from 4 heat wave days per year currently to more than 50 per year in 2100. The increase will be even greater in large cities such as Brussels, Antwerp or Liège (due to the urban heat islands effect).
- The sea level at the Belgian coast may rise by 60 to 90 cm by 2100 with a worst-case scenario of 200 cm.
- Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration indicate a negative water balance during the summer months, creating a risk of water shortage and an increased risk of drought
Among other, a study conducted in 2020 by VITO, EcoRes and Kenter on request of the National Climate Commission give already an overview of the socio-economic impact of climate change. The main conclusions of this report are:
- The total costs, which are mainly induced by extreme heat, drought and flooding, amount to almost 9.5 billion euros/year, or around 2% of Belgian GDP. Conversely, the gains associated with milder winters amount to around €3 billion a year, or 0.65% of GDP.
- Although higher temperatures may lead to a reduction in winter mortality and morbidity, this will also be accompanied by an additional summer mortality rate of around 926 deaths per year in 2050 (1900 by the end of the century).
- A loss of labour productivity over the period 2081-2100 should cost Belgium 610 million euros/year (in the coldest year) to 9 billion euros/year in the hottest year. For mid-century, the cost varies from 170 million to 3.5 billion euros/year.
- The total annual damage expected due to flooding in Belgium is between 343 and 940 million euros/year in 2050 and between 2.534 and 5.590 billion euros/year in 2100.
- As far as electricity production in power stations is concerned, drought and rising temperatures are expected to result in an additional cost of 44 million euros/year by 2050. The impact of climate change will also lead to a cost associated with reduced efficiency in electricity transmission and distribution, which is expected to amount to 91 million euros/year.
- By 2050, in years with adverse weather conditions, crop yields could fall well below recent minimum levels (1981-2010) (down 35%), particularly for potatoes and maize; the value of total agricultural production (crop and livestock) could fall by up to 606 million euros/year compared with 2019.
- The Fire Weather Index, used to estimate the increased risk of drought-related forest fires, is expected to increase by 30-40% (and by more than 40% in the Belgian Ardennes) by 2071-2100; losses and costs related to forest fires are expected to reach 14.3 million euros/year by 2071-2100.
- The reduced functioning of ecosystem services and their ability to provide benefits is expected to result in an overall cost of €1,108 million/year, which represents the monetary cost of not providing these services.
Since then, Europe made it’s own assessment of the risk of climate change for Europe in its European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) report. European Climate Risk Assessment. This first European Climate Risk Assessment intends to support the identification of adaptation-related policy priorities in Europe and policy development in climate-sensitive sectors during the next EU policy cycle. It identified 39 key risks for Europe and energy is one of the policy areas which is the most exposed to climate risks.
The First climate and biodiversity risk assessment for Belgium will be conducted on 12 months (mid 2024- mid-2025) by CERAC and a consortium of experts. This first risk assessment will be based on the above-mentioned study as well as other relevant studies.
Within this study, sectors and systems are combined in five clusters, with three transversal themes:
- Security and safety dimension
- Business and macro-economic dimension
- People, social and cultural dimension
The below five cluster pages will be developed further. At this moment we refer to the extensive EUCRA Report (2024) that gives an overview on EU scale.