Social dimension of risk

The risks associated with exceeding planetary boundaries are increasingly recognised by policymakers around the world, including in Belgium. As highlighted in Belgium’s first National Security Strategy, climate change and environmental degradation pose a wide range of threats to the country’s citizens, economy, and natural environment. These impacts are already being felt today and are expected to intensify in the future.

Policymakers therefore face a growing need to better understand not only the physical consequences of global warming and the transgression of planetary boundaries, but also their socio-economic impacts. Policies aimed at keeping human activity within the Earth’s environmental limits must also take into account the “social foundation” — that is, the effects on fundamental human rights such as access to affordable housing, energy, food, and gender equality.

For this reason, Cerac focuses not only on the physical risks of exceeding planetary boundaries, but also on their social implications (see Chapter 6, Social Impacts, in the report "Is Belgium Living within its Safe Operating Space?").

In the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment, we analysed which groups are socially vulnerable to the risks associated with climate change and ecosystem degradation. Our findings show that climate change is likely to pose major social challenges in Belgium. While the entire population will be affected as climate and environmental risks intensify, people in vulnerable situations — particularly those with low incomes — will be disproportionately impacted.

However, these risks will not be confined to traditionally vulnerable groups such as the most deprived or the elderly. As climate hazards become more frequent and severe, an increasing number of people may find themselves in vulnerable situations. The extent of the impact will vary depending on socio-economic status, housing conditions, health, and employment.

Concrete examples from across Belgium:

• Homeowners in flood-prone areas may become trapped in their properties, unable to sell, insure, renovate, or repair them. Low-income tenants, who often live in poorly insulated and poorly ventilated housing, are likely to be more severely affected by heatwaves and poor air quality, and typically lack the means to relocate.
• Farmers face multiple risks, including extreme temperatures, livestock diseases, water scarcity, declining crop yields, loss of pollinators, and exposure to vector-borne diseases. Together, these pressures can create significant economic and psychological strain.
• Urban residents will increasingly experience urban heat island effects, higher levels of air pollution, and greater risks of communicable diseases. In contrast, rural populations may face difficulties accessing healthcare during extreme weather events due to geographical isolation.

Cumulative vulnerabilities

Some individuals will face heightened exposure to climate risks due to overlapping vulnerability factors such as precarious housing, unstable employment, and poor health. For example, a single mother with two young children living in a disadvantaged neighbourhood within a flood-prone area may face multiple constraints during a flood: relocating is not feasible, evacuation is complex and slow, and health risks (such as mould exposure) may arise. As a result, she is significantly more exposed than someone without these combined vulnerabilities.

A challenge for adaptation policies

As Els Barnard, social issues expert at Cerac, explains:
“If the needs of vulnerable groups are not taken into account in adaptation policies, social, economic, and health inequalities will increase. Social cohesion will weaken, and trust in institutions will decline.”

Taking social considerations into account in climate policy — particularly in adaptation strategies — is therefore essential to strengthening Belgium’s resilience.

For further information, please refer to Chapter 4 of the report, which provides an overview of social vulnerabilities related to the risks analysed in the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment. Chapter 7 presents, among other elements, our recommendations for ensuring a just and resilient transition.