Food

Droughts, floods, soil degradation, livestock diseases, loss of biodiversity: the Belgian food system is in danger of becoming increasingly vulnerable. The country's food security is undermined by a series of mutually reinforcing climatic and ecological shocks.

"One of the biggest threats to food security is soil degradation," explains Aurore Brunson, BCRA coordinator at Cerac. She continues: "In Wallonia, almost 90% of arable land has levels of organic matter that are deemed to be critically low. Without long-term restoration, this degradation will become irreversible". This will jeopardise essential ecosystem services, including agricultural production.

In addition, fruit sectors are threatened by the decline of wild pollinators, exacerbated by climate change, habitat loss and pesticides. Apple and pear yields could fall by 40-90% in the absence of effective pollination.

Livestock diseases and health risks are weakening the food chain

As the planet heats up, the increased spread of disease carriers, such as ticks, mosquitoes and midges, leads to the spread of diseases such as bluetongue among livestock. In the future, epidemics could become more frequent, impacting animal health and the profitability of farms.

Rising temperatures also encourage the proliferation of toxins and pathogens, such as Salmonella and Listeria. With the cold chain weakened, food preservation becomes compromised. Health risks for the population will rise, in particular during heatwaves.

Decreasing crop yields

Climate hazards are affecting crop yields, with potato and maize yields in danger of collapse. In 2018, drought already caused the potato harvest to fall by almost 30%. In the future, annual losses could run into the tens of millions of euros.

Some crops could temporarily benefit from the fertilizing effect of CO₂, or longer growing seasons. However, these gains will be offset by the increased frequency of extreme weather events. For example, potatoes, for which CO₂ is partly beneficial, are still highly vulnerable to excessive water and disease.

The consequences of climate hazards are not limited to lower yields and production. They also weaken the entire agri-food sector, which employs over 25,000 people in Wallonia and processes 60% of national production. Farmers and breeders are directly impacted. Small farms are more vulnerable. Workers and seasonal labourers face unstable incomes if harvests decline. Last but not least, as the drop in production leads to a spike in inflation, households are directly impacted.

Towards an urgent agri-ecological transition

It is crucial that the Belgian agricultural model evolves. There are solutions available: agroecology, crop diversification, soil restoration, protecting pollinators, etc. However, these all require strong political will, coordination between levels of government and support for farmers.

For more information, please refer to chapter 3.2 of the report. You will find an overview of the risks for food. In chapter 7, you will find, among other things, an overview of our recommendations for food.

Also read the technical papers and summary sheets that discuss these risks (download below).