Long approached solely from an environmental perspective, the effects of climate change are now likely to affect public safety and must be recognised by authorities. Forest fires, water shortages, disruptions to key infrastructure, budgetary pressures due to natural disasters: these risks are all set to intensify over the medium term, and could compromise essential services such as the response to emergencies, communications and access to healthcare. These risks can thus become security crises.

Belgium recognises these climatic and environmental risks as threats to its national security, but the extent to which they are taken into account in its operational security systems remains largely inadequate.

Fragmented governance

This shortcoming is partly caused by the country's fragmented governance, where responsibilities are divided between various levels of authority, without sufficiently structured coordination.

Crisis prevention, preparedness and response mechanisms remain divided, hampering the development of a comprehensive approach to risk. The limitations of this organisational structure are evident when it comes to managing and anticipating the complex, interconnected crises typical of climate change.

Strengthening safety tools

It is proving difficult for safety strategies to incorporate the specific characteristics of environmental risks into national assessment and planning tools. Warning systems, monitoring mechanisms and information channels are not adapted to anticipating crises that could simultaneously affect public health, key infrastructures and social cohesion.

The BCRA calling for an overhaul of security architecture

In light of these findings, the report recommends an in-depth transformation of Belgium's security architecture, focusing on three key areas:

  • Inclusive governance strengthening coordination between the different levels (federal, regional, provincial and local), while involving citizens, businesses and emergency services.
  • Long-term strategic planning incorporating the cascading risks and compounding effects of climate change into budgetary and operational decisions.
  • A shared risk culture based on recognition of the specific needs of the most vulnerable groups.

Finally, to ensure essential services continue to run and citizens are protected, Belgium must make climate resilience a central pillar of its national security. This means going beyond sectoral logic, strengthening our ability to anticipate, and providing the State with a security framework adapted to the challenges of the 21st century.

For further information, please refer to chapter 6.3 of the report. In chapter 7, you will find, among other things, an overview of our recommendations relating to national security.