On 15 September 2025, Australia released its first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) — a landmark effort mapping 63 significant climate risks, including 11 priority risks across eight key systems: communities, the natural environment, infrastructure, the economy, food and primary industries, health, social support, and national security.
The findings are sobering:
- +1.5 °C warming already, possibly +3 °C by 2090
- Heatwave mortality could rise by 400%+ in major cities
- AUD 611 billion in property losses by 2050
- Up to 70% of native plants at risk of extinction
This systemic approach highlights how climate impacts cascade across sectors, amplifying vulnerabilities and disrupting essential services.
As Belgium prepares its first Belgian Climate Risk Assessment (BCRA), Cerac can draw three key lessons from the Australian experience:
* Move from isolated risks to systemic risk analysis
* Build a robust, iterative methodology that evolves over time
* Bridge risk assessment and public action, linking the BCRA to a future national adaptation strategy and security planning
By integrating science, systems thinking, and policy, Belgium can lay the foundation for climate resilience and preparedness—and become a European leader in climate risk governance.