Recap of the BCRA Event

The event celebrating the publication of the Belgian Climate & Environmental Risk Assessment (BCRA) marks a turning point in Belgium’s climate and security policy. For the first time, CERAC has produced a comprehensive and systematic analysis of climate and environmental risks, based on the EU-level EUCRA framework. The report provides the most complete picture to date of Belgium’s vulnerabilities—ecological, economic, social, and security-related—and highlights both the scale of the threat and the urgency of coordinated action.

The importance of the BCRA: a shared foundation for risk assessment

The BCRA shows that Belgium is currently insufficiently prepared for the impacts of climate change. The 2021 Vesdre Valley floods—frequently referenced during the event—remain a stark reminder of these weaknesses. The BCRA goes beyond traditional climate studies by including five biodiversity-related risks, integrating risk interactions, and benchmarking Belgium against international standards.

The report serves as a strategic compass—as stated by Stéphanie Roland (on behalf of Minister Crucke)—guiding new adaptation strategies, strengthening federal-regional cooperation, and shaping an interfederal plan for extreme weather. The message was clear: climate policy is also security policy, economic policy, and public-health policy.

The European perspective was strongly present. According to Martin Spolc, the BCRA fits perfectly within the evolution toward a European Preparedness Union, with shared scenarios and methodologies. The BCRA’s findings should feed into national and sectoral risk planning, including transport, defence, and macro-financial analysis.

Veronika Safrankova (UNEP) added that the world is entering an era of polycrisis, where climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution reinforce one another. The adaptation finance gap continues to widen; without a massive increase in funding—up to USD 1.3 trillion global and yearly according to the Baku-Belém Roadmap—vulnerable groups will bear the highest burden.

Panel 1: Flooding, insurability, and financial stability

The first panel focused on the insurability of climate risks, an increasingly pressing issue as extreme weather becomes more frequent and severe. Representatives from local authorities, the insurance sector, and the National Bank painted a shared picture: rising damages threaten households, infrastructure, and the stability of insurance and financial systems.

Local leaders highlighted reconstruction costs, spatial-planning constraints, and the need for structural prevention. The National Bank warned of potential uninsurability of certain areas and the systemic risk this implies.

The quote by Hein Lannoy (CEO Assuralia) was particularly striking:

“The insurance sector welcomes the Belgian Risk Assessment Report. It shows that without a sustainable public-private partnership, citizens risk being left out in the cold during the next major natural disaster. The sector will do everything it can, but it cannot do this alone.”

Panel 2: Heat stress and health: a silent crisis

The second panel addressed the growing threat of heat stress, which could cause more than 1,000 additional deaths annually in Belgium. Experts explained that this is as much a social issue as a medical one: urban heat islands, unprepared healthcare systems, and unequal exposure. Solutions include urban greening, improved building insulation, public cooling areas, structural monitoring, and a “One Health” approach linking human, animal and environmental health.

Panel 3: Ecosystems, soil degradation, and food security

The third panel examined the foundations of food production. The BCRA shows that soil degradation in Belgium is reaching critical levels, with nearly 90% of Walloon arable soils below safe thresholds of organic matter.

Scientists explained that restoration can take centuries and that a tipping point is approaching. Solutions lie in agroecology, crop diversification, maintaining soil cover, and socially fair policies that do not disproportionately impact vulnerable consumers.

Panel 4: Climate and security: a new paradigm

The fourth panel explored climate change as a major security challenge. Crisis-management services, civil protection, defence, and diplomacy all agreed: existing systems are robust but not designed for future risks. The BCRA helps assess whether current plans, resources and responsibilities are still adequate.

The international dimension was highlighted as well: climate change is a risk multiplier, increasing instability, migration pressures and geopolitical tensions.

Closing conversation: Brussels as a laboratory, limited by fragmentation

Minister Alain Maron emphasised the obstacles created by Belgium’s institutional fragmentation. Despite progress in Brussels—urban greening, heat-response measures, water management—the lack of national coherence limits overall impact. Belgium’s abstention in the EU 2040 climate decision illustrates what he sees as a lack of political courage.

He sees the BCRA as a strategic tool enabling evidence-based prioritisation and stronger cooperation across institutions.

Conclusion

The event showed that the BCRA is far more than a study: it is the foundation of a new societal contract on climate risks. It exposes vulnerabilities, risk interactions, and the choices required to protect people, the economy and nature.

The shared message across all speakers: adaptation is no longer optional—it is essential. The costs of inaction will far exceed those of prevention. With the BCRA, Belgium now has the knowledge required to act.