Security and Resilience in the Belgian context

The Belgian Climate Risk Assessment (BCRA), published by CERAC in 2025, clearly shows that climate change is already having serious consequences. The disaster in July 2021 in the Vesder Valley claimed 39 lives and damaged 45,000 homes. In the worst-hit areas (the Vesder and Lesse river basins), infrastructure networks were also damaged, disrupting access to transport, telecommunications, electricity, gas, and drinking water.

Climate disruption and environmental degradation therefore pose a structural threat to our national security. This is explicitly stated in our national security strategy, which identifies natural and climatic developments as one of the most significant threats to our society.

Climate and environment-related risks occur in all sectors and will only increase over time. A holistic approach, addressing all aspects of the risk cycle, is therefore necessary.

Through its risk analyses and recommendations, CERAC helps governments and other actors to better understand these challenges and respond to them in a targeted manner. It does this so that a coherent and efficient policy can be developed that strengthens our country's resilience to climate and ecosystem degradation risks.

In order to have an impact within the Belgian security chain, CERAC reports to the National Security Council. The Coordination Committee for Intelligence and Security (CCIV) is also in the establishment of the three-year work program of CERAC.

CERAC links scientific research, policy-making, and practice. Addressing climate and environmental risks requires a ‘comprehensive societal approach’.’. Through multidisciplinary research and collaboration, CERAC aims to propose innovative solutions.

Resilience starts with reducing exposure and vulnerability to hazards and threats.

Whether it involves building new water management systems or reviewing transport infrastructure (new or in a replacement plan at the end of its life), each step must take into account the potential impact on the climate and the environment.

Strategic planning and investment can also increase resilience to environmental challenges, while contributing to a safer and more sustainable future.

The challenge is to create as many win-win situations as possible. For example, we see that the law on the resilience of critical entities of 2025 focuses on protecting our critical infrastructure against human threats and also takes into account the consequences of climate disruption.

With major investments in resilience and prevention, we can reduce the impact but not eliminate all risks. Disasters will continue to occur in the future. What's more, as the risks increase, the likelihood and scale of disasters will also increase. This may mean that emergency services and security actors will have to respond to different, more complex, and/or more numerous and simultaneous emergencies.

It is therefore important that security actors and emergency services also incorporate climate and environmental risks and their evolution into their organization, procedures, planning, training, and investments.

To support this, the National Crisis Center (NCCN) sits on the CERAC Steering Committee. Our organization works closely with federal, regional, and local security actors. CERAC also participates in the development of the Belgian National Resilience Plan (BNR-P) and works with partners on Belgium's preparedness for wildfires. CERAC is also one of the founders of the Belgian Wild Fire Network, and has drawn up a Critical Entities Resilience (CER) checklist in collaboration with the NCCN to support the competent authorities in incorporating climate risks into their critical infrastructure protection policies.

More and more international security actors recognize that climate disruption and ecosystem degradation pose fundamental risks to national and international security. For example, NATO emphasizes in a report from January 2026 that climate disruption affects the entire security landscape and exacerbates existing instability and vulnerabilities.

The United Kingdom, in 2026, has also explicitly classified global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as a national security risk, with potential consequences for food security, health, and geopolitical stability, among other things.

At the European level, the European Union’s Strategic Compass on Security and Defense points to climate change as a threat multiplier that can exacerbate conflicts, fragility, and social tensions.

These insights are in line with the Belgian National Security Strategy, which recognizes that climate disruption threatens our model of society. Moreover, it has a multiplier effect on other phenomena such as poverty, conflict, and migration, putting increasing pressure on states and the multilateral system.

As a strongly internationally oriented country, Belgium is vulnerable to these global cascade effects.

To better prepare Belgium for these developments, CERAC will conduct a targeted study that systematically maps global climate and environmental risks and their impact on Belgian security and resilience.