Climate Change and Environmental Pressures: A Growing Threat to the Belgian North Sea and Various Sectors

Covering 3,456 km², the Belgian part of the North Sea hosts an exceptional concentration of activities that are important to Belgium. Shipping, fisheries, offshore energy, sand extraction, coastal protection, tourism, defence and nature conservation must coexist within a limited area. This concentration already places considerable pressure on marine ecosystems.

The report examines how climate change may intensify existing pressures on marine ecosystems, with consequences for the services they provide and the human activities that depend on them. Among others, it aims to help policymakers better understand emerging climate-related risks to the marine environment and integrate these considerations into decisions being made today.

As an initial strategic screening, the exploratory report identifies climate-related risks that need to be anticipated to strengthen the resilience of the marine environment, along with priorities for action. It also highlights the need for further analysis to inform long-term decision making, particularly regarding the cumulative effects of marine climate-related risks and the adaptation of long-lived infrastructure, such as offshore wind turbines.

The Belgian part of the North Sea is already changing

The impacts of climate change in the Belgian part of the North Sea are already visible. Mean sea level at Ostend rose by approximately 24 cm between 1951 and 2024, while sea temperatures in the area have been increasing for several decades. The summer of 2026 also saw the most significant marine heatwave recorded to date.

Some fish species are shifting their distribution to new areas, while species adapted to warmer waters are being observed more frequently in Belgian waters.

Consequences for marine ecosystems, infrastructure and security

The report identifies seven major climate- and environment-related risks. Some of these, such as shifts in the distribution of marine species, rapid ecosystem degradation and harmful algal blooms, primarily affect the nature and quality of marine ecosystems.

However, the consequences of climate change extend beyond changes tot ecosystems and biodiversity. Climate hazards may also increase the risk of damage, coastal and offshore infrastructure (including ports) and coastal defenses, while disrupting surveillance, rescue and maritime security operations, and military activities. The severity of the seven risks analysed reaches a level classified as “critical” in a +4°C warming scenario.

Climate risks often occur in combination

The identified climate-related risks rarely occur in isolation. They often result from a combination of several climate hazards. Ocean warming, marine heatwaves, acidification, sea-level rise and an increase in storm frequency and intensity, can occur together and contribute simultaneously to climate-related risks. In other words, it is often the combination of hazards that creates the greatest challenges for marine ecosystems and the activities that depend on them.

Legend : main climate hazards (rows) and the risks they drive (columns) in the BPNS. Dark green cells indicate the primary hazard(s) for a risk and light green cells the secondary hazard(s).

The Belgian part of the North Sea accounts for 11% of the total Belgian territory, and accommodates a significant concentration of economic, environmental, strategic and military activities.

This concentration of activities already places multiple pressures on marine habitats. Climate change adds to these existing pressures, potentially further reducing the ability of some ecosystems to adapt and recover.

The report’s main message is therefore clear: climate-related risks must be assessed alongside the other pressures already affecting the marine environment.

The study applies the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment (BCRA) methodology developed by CERAC and its partners. It thus draws on scientific literature, available data and the expertise of specialists in the field. Seven priority risks were assessed at three levels of global warming: +2°C, +3°C and +4°C. Then, as part of the preparation of this report, a workshop was organised bringing together all stakeholders from all involved authorities.

At this stage, however, the interactions between climate, ecological, infrastructure and socio-economic pressures cannot yet be quantified adequately, further work is needed to achieve this.

The report notes that Belgium already has a wide range of tools for monitoring, planning and managing the marine environment. The main priorities for action identified in the report are:

• Include climate change in existing policy frameworks and provide the means to implement them;
• Reduce existing human pressures, such as eutrophication and pollution, and keep as much of the seabed undisturbed as reasonably possible;
• Prepare for acute events with dedicated action plans;
• Clarify responsibilities, starting from the existing responsibilities at sea, and use an existing coordination structure such as the Belgian Coast Guard where responsibilities and climate risks overlap;
• Plan adaptively. Use dynamic adaptive approaches and choose measures that can be adjusted as evidence improves.

The evidence is clear: climate change is already altering the Belgian part of the North Sea. Every additional degree of warming will increase the impacts as well as the cost of adaptation. Limiting climate change therefore remains essential, while reducing existing pressures can deliver immediate benefits.

Protecting the marine environment is not only about biodiversity: a healthy and safe North Sea is also the foundation of the blue economy. Belgium is also a maritime trading nation, and maritime shipping is the backbone of its economy. Protecting our sea is therefore also protecting our economy.

The exploratory climate risk report does not mark the end of the supporting analysis. It remains a priority to deepen knowledge where gaps remain and make anticipation an integral part of public decision-making. This will enable Belgium to prepare more effectively for the future of the North Sea, and ultimately for its own future.

How is climate change already affecting the Belgian North Sea?

Rising sea temperatures, marine heatwaves and sea-level rise are already being observed in Belgian waters.

Why is the Belgian part of the North Sea particularly vulnerable?

It accommodates many human activities within a limited area. The resulting pressures combine with climate hazards and may place additional strain on marine ecosystems and more or less affect the services they provide to us.

How can the resilience of marine ecosystems in the Belgian North Sea be strengthened in the face of climate change?

The report recommends integrating climate-related risks into the next marine spatial plan, testing the resilience of coastal and offshore infrastructure, improving the detection of compound events through monitoring and early warning, and strengthening coordination between the relevant stakeholders.